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FATA on FIRE
 
By Imtiaz Gul

Weekly Pulse, Islamabad October 11, 2007

While political rivals – Benazir Bhutto, Chaudhrys, APDM components and the military establishment remain locked in the selfish, self-serving power play in Islamabad, militants in Waziristan continue to bleed the Pakistan army and its affiliate security forces. Unofficial but published
Figures since July 15 suggest that security forces have lost over 300 personnel in clashes, roadside blasts caused by improvised explosive devices (IED), sting operations, and suicide attacks.
Official death toll of military and paramilitary, including the latest casualties in North Waziristan since Oct. 07 has crossed 775. In all the bloody events since the weekend claimed as many as 175 lives. The army is also still looking for the roughly 250 people – abducted on August 30. At least three of them have also been executed so far. As of Oct 09, mystery still surrounded the whereabouts of another few dozen soldiers with whom the headquarters lost contact on Oct 08.
These alarming events and figures stand in sharp contrast to the losses suffered by US-led coalition forces whose
casualty figures in Afghanistan since mid July 15 have been about 80.
That the militants are now operating at will not only in the tribal areas but also in the adjacent districts comes as no surprise. Attacks on CD and music shops, threats hurled particularly at girls schools in the Malakand region, and lawlessness also in the Frontier Regions is indeed mind-boggling.
If intelligence agencies in the Frontier Province were to be believed, several dozen containers carrying cargo for the western Coalition forces in Afghanistan have either gone missing or publicly abducted in the Khyber Agency on the way to Torkham border crossing.
At least 18 suicide attacks in different parts of the country during the current year also suggest that those at war with the Pakistani and foreign troops are now knocking at the doors of Rawalpindi and Islamabad. Attacks on ISI bus and at the counter-terrorism rapid force near Tarbela-Ghazi also bear testimony to the volatility caused by ready-to-kill human bombs who perceive the Pakistan army as the agent of the United States and therefore don't hesitate to take on targets that are associated with the Pakistani or western military establishment. Whether the attack on Karachi corps commander in 2004 or the resistance offered by religious zealots holed up in the Red Mosque in July, they all bore signs of Waziristan. Links clearly exist between the militants there and those operating in cities.
In this context the statement early this month by Baitullah Mehsood, vowing to target Benazir Bhutto, also came as no surprise. His bombers are waiting for her, said the statement, suggesting that Ms Bhutto also now stands bracketed with Gen.Musharraf and few of his ministers. Militants obviously view them all as the agents of the United States.

Ironically, the United States advocates a tough line to strike at the "heart of al-Qaeda" in the Waziristan region. On the other hand, Washington has committed assistance worth $750 million for the economic uplift of the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (Fata(, including 105 million for the current year.

The USAID directorate says hat the assistance activities would directly support Pakistan government's Sustainable Development Plan for Fata and cover diverse areas such as capacity building, livelihoods, agriculture, micro and small and medium enterprises, health, education and infrastructure development.

Keeping in view the fragile and insecure situation in the tribal areas, the US authorities have also reportedly agreed to locate Reconstruction Opportunity Zones (RoZs) in the adjacent settled areas.

Simultaneously, suspicions on the role of officials within the Pakistani security apparatus also abound.

A report in the US daily NEWSDAY early October quoted Boston University's Husain Haqqani as saying that " while Musharraf is allied with Washington, many in his army and security services are wedded to the Taliban. Parts of the ISI, the army and political and religious elites form a support network to help the Taliban and allied guerrillas recruit and train fighters, raise money and infiltrate Afghanistan, the analysts say.

"In this shadowy war, the Taliban's main bases and support networks are hidden in rugged mountains of Pakistan's ethnic Pashtun tribal areas, along the border south of here. A U.S. National Intelligence Estimate report said in July that the same tribal districts are "a safe-haven" for al-Qaida. Those districts are closed to foreigners, except on occasional, army-escorted trips," NEWSDAY report said based on statements by people on ground.

The report also detailed activities of a tribesman and ISI employee called Subidar. He recruits and organizes guerrillas to make attacks (inside Afghanistan), it claimed.

"The Subidar was one of hundreds of men who served as "handlers" for the ISI's guerrilla clients. In the 1980s, he helped provide U.S.-supplied weapons and logistical support to Afghan, Pakistani, Arab and other mujahideen fighting the Soviet occupation of Afghanistan, according to residents in Chitral. After the Soviets withdrew in 1989, he oversaw camps over the border in Afghanistan that trained Jaish-e-Muhammad guerrillas," the report claimed quoting sources.

"In all, six sources - Pakistanis in Chitral, a U.S. military officer in Afghanistan and Afghans, including intelligence officials - described the Subidar, his work and his status as an active ISI agent.

"We know that he is sending men and material for ISI and is responsible for their cross-border work," said Matiullah Khan Safi, a former police chief of Afghanistan's Kunar province, which abuts Chitral.

Asked about the Subidar's role, NEWSDAY said, Pakistan's chief military spokesman, Maj. Gen. Waheed Arshad, expressed ignorance about him. "The army doesn't know of "any such fellow" and "can't find any information on him."

Such reports apart, the reality on ground offers big challenges to the Pakistani authorities, which are facing a revolt in the tribal areas in a very hostile environment. Incessant military operations have resulted in numerous deaths and this fact keeps breeding hatred of the army. Although interior minister Aftab Sherpao has hinted recently that army may be partially withdrawn from the tribal areas if peace returns, yet the explosive situation seems to be spiraling and no ends seems in sight – at least in the near future. High-handed handling of these wily regions has multiplied the Taliban zealots and filled them with anti-US and anti-Army sentiment.

Mere rhetoric and sting operations, that invariably also inflict losses on civilians, will not repair the damage done since late 2001. The situation demands unconditional involvement of major political forces and immediate tactical retreat of the army to its bases inside the tribal area. While then government needs to actively pursue legal incorporation of these areas into mainland Pakistan, it must return the governance power to the political agents and empower them to talk to all and sundry, rather than engaging only the hand-picked tribal elders. Taliban are a reality and essential part of life there and there is no way around talking to them.