Is Pakistan heading for the bad old days of a fractious political landscape – witnessed in the late 1980s and 1990s - following the walkout of one of the main partners of the coalition government?

This questions will haunt all and sundry because of the new battle lines drawn after former premier Nawaz Sharif told a press conference on Monday that  Asif Ali Zardari, had repeatedly gone back even on written agreements, thus forcing his Pakistan Muslim League (PML) to quit the coalition. We have been forced to take this step, a defiant Sharif said. He also promised not to destabilize the central government and work for democracy.
On Tuesday, rival candidates  including Zardari, Mushahid Hussein and former chief justice, Saeeduzzaman Siddiqui filed nominations for the Sept. 6 presidential election, in which members of the country's four provincial assemblies and the national parliament will vote.
 
The unresolved question of the restoration of  all judges deposed by Musharraf last year also hangs over the government.

While Sharif has been insisting the judges get their jobs back, the PPP is reluctant because of the worry that the deposed chief justice Iftikhar Chaudhry might take up challenges to the National Reconciliation Ordinance (NRO) general Musharraf had issued to facilitate the return of all leaders living in exile.
 
Zardari reacted to Sharif pullout on the national TV Monday with an "apology" and asking him to return to government.
"I apologise if Mian Nawaz Sharif feels hurt, but I would still request him to come back for the sake of Pakistan."

The apology, however, only drew scorn from the Sharif camp because in an interview with the BBC over the weekend, Zardari played down an agreement earlier this month over the reinstatement of judges as "not as sacrosanct as the Quran."
  This definition of a "political agreement" shocked most observers as well.
 
"It is blatant cheating – nothing less," commented Afzal Khan, a senior analyst.

He also recalled Zardari's internal contradictions as described by  The New York Times over five months ago(16 March 2008).
"Zardari said in the interview, he attended the London School of Business Studies and received a degree. His official biography says he attended a commercial college called Pedington School. But a search of tertiary educational institutions in London showed no such school, and associates said he did not finish his studies," wrote the paper.
"I do have a degree. I attended the London School of Business Studies much before I was married. I think it's a B Ed degree. I haven't really looked at it."

Most Pakistanis therefore wonder as to why should  they trust a person of such contradictions and volatile attitude. Nawaz Sharif, also known for egoistic attitude, couldn't take this "nonsensical attitude any more when Zardari failed to reinstate judges and also went ahead with his own nomination for the presidential slot – all without consulting the second largest party of the coalition. He basically demonstrated the arbitrariness in his nature, with little real consultation and regard for political allies.
 
If elected to the Presidency on Sept 6, Zardari would become the commander in chief of the armed forces, control the nuclear arsenal, and would have the hand-picked prime minister under his thumb. Additionally he wants to continue heading the party as well - absolute power concentrated in one person.
 
Essentially,  the coalition break up throws Pakistan at the mercy of Asif Ali Zardari, who also draws strength from Washington and London, and the army headed by General Ashfaq Kayani.

Though both men have publicly stated they would not work to the detriment of democracy, the lobbying for the presidential election underscores the beginning of a new power struggle between the politically most influential province Punjab, ruled by the PML, and what is likely to be a coalition in the firm grip of Zardari.
 
The first skirmish took place a day after the coalition collapse; Salman Taseer, the Punjab governor, summoned senior bureaucrats and police officials, warning them of interference in the run up to the presidential election.
 
"No manpower, no resources of the Punjab will be used during the process," Taseer told a press conference.

Provincial ministers dubbed Taseer's instructions as "exceeding his mandate" and described it as uncalled for.

"Coming weeks and months are likely to see ever more bickering and tension between the two major parties ," Dr Farrukh Saleem, executive director of the Islamabad-based independent Centre for Research and Securities Studies (CRSS) told this scribe.

But he added that both sides would like to consolidate their position before thinking of fresh elections.  The numbers' game in the national and all the four provincial parliaments currently favours Zardari, Dr Saleem noted.
 
With the MQM, ANP and JUI-F of the maverick Maulana Fazlur Rehman on his side, Zardari appears well set to grab the highest slot in the federation of Pakistan, unless he pulls a surprise and steps down in favour of his sister Faryal Talpur, or takes an altogether different decision i.e. strikes a deal with the PML(Q) to cement his indirect hold on power.

"People wanted an end to the crisis that began in March last year when Musharraf sacked the chief justice, but the coalition's collapse has disappointed them, for they see further uncertainty...besides a worsening of the economic situation, the political instability could encourage the Taliban to step up their war on Pakistan," says an expert. The break-up of the coalition has already hit stocks, with prices down roughly four percent on the Karachi Stock Exchange.
Besides the looming economic crisis, with fast depleting foreign exchange reserves (down from 17 billion to under nine billion)  and relentless food and fuel inflation, the government also faces the uphill task of taming Islamic militants, currently battling the Pakistani army in the tribal areas bordering Afghanistan. The Army reportedly is also getting ready for an operation in the outskirts of Peshawar, while the inter-tribal feud in Kurram agency continues to take human toll.

Military operations in the Bajaur and Swat regions, which have dislocated close to 300,000 people into Peshawar and other adjoining areas,  and clashes between the military and militants have killed over 900 people since early August, and the Pakistani Taliban vowing to continue the latest wave of suicide bombings that took as many as 87 lives in once incident alone a week ago at the Pakistan Ordnance Factories (POF).