The Obama'Petraeus strategy for Pakistan
By Imtiaz Gul
Weekly Pulse, Islamabad November 13, 2008
The euphoria following Barack Obama's victory is now gradually giving way to the formation of teams which will get together to realize the promises made during the long campaign and assess new problems facing the United States in the aftermath of the financial crisis. As far the future of Pakistan and Afghanistan, Obama has nominated Bruce O. Riedel, a former high-ranking CIA and Pentagon official who helped shape U.S. policy in South Asia under President Bill Clinton, as his special as advisor.
Riedel, who knows the region quite well, says the United States faces a very frustrating situation in Pakistan , and the recent U.S. cross-border attacks from Afghanistan into Pakistan are risky given the anti-Americanism in Pakistan. Riedel argues that the next president should " work with the civilian government, show them we want democracy in Pakistan," and to "increase our assistance to Pakistan, especially in economic areas." He also urges putting pressure on Afghanistan to accept the border with Pakistan imposed in 1893 by the British and get the Indians to work toward a Kashmir solution acceptable to all sides.
Riedel, too, believes that the "sanctuary that al-Qaeda and the Taliban have built in Pakistan can and will be, sooner or later, used to target American interests outside of South Asia, possibly including in the United States itself. "So, our military faces a very frustrating situation. It cannot defeat the Taliban as long as they have a sanctuary across the border, and it fears that al-Qaeda in that sanctuary is developing plans and plots that go far beyond Afghanistan."
Bruce Riedel made these remarks in an interview with the Council for Foreign Relations in September, and is likely to take these views into his White House brief for Obama. This would amount to combining the military option with political engagement i.e. pursuing dialogue and development through the democratic government.
Much before Riedel's above-mentioned interview, General David Petraeus, the new US Central Command chief, had spelt out a new counter-terrorism strategy, largely based on his experiences in Iraq. Titled as "Multi-National Force-Iraq Commander's Counterinsurgency Guidance" dated 15 July 2008 , Gen.Petraeus said the counter-insurgency campaign must be people-focussed i.e. protect them, work with them and work for them through the establishment of local governance, restoration of basic services, and revival of local economies.
Some of the points that the Petraeus guidelines contain are as follows:
* Secure and serve the population and live among the people to give them respect and gain their support, Living among the people is essential to securing them and defeating the insurgents ( Read with Raising Lashkars in Pakistan's tribal areas).
* Pursue the enemy relentlessly. Identify and pursue Al Qaeda-Iraq and other extremist elements tenaciously. Do not let them retain support areas or sanctuaries. Force the enemy to respond to us. Deny the enemy the ability to plan and conduct deliberate operations.
* Counter-terrorist forces alone cannot defeat Al-Qaeda and the other extremists. Success requires a comprehensive approach that employs all forces and all means at our disposal-non-kinetic as well as kinetic.
* We must strive to make the reconcilables part of the solution, even as we identify, pursue, and kill, capture, or drive out the irreconcilables.
* Defeat the network, not just the attack. Focus to the "left" of the explosion. Employ intelligence assets to identify the network behind an attack, and go after its leaders, explosives experts, financiers, suppliers, and operators.
Gen.Petraeus also underscores the importance of financial resources saying "Employ money as a weapon system. Money can be "ammunition" as the security situation improves. Ensure contracting activities support the security effort, employing locals wherever possible.
Petraeus advises his army to "build relationships." Relationships are a critical component of counterinsurgency operations.
Another guideline relates to the outreach to people. "Be first with the truth. Get accurate information of significant activities to the chain of command, and to the press as soon as is possible. Integrity is critical to this fight. Don't put lipstick on pigs. Acknowledge setbacks and failures, and then state what we've learned and how we'll respond. Hold the press (and ourselves) accountable for accuracy, characterization, and context.
Interestingly, some of the guidelines (that Gen.Petraeus originally prepared for Iraq) converge with what Bruce Riedel says on Afghanistan and Pakistan. The emphasis on "relentless perusal of the enemy" makes it abundantly clear that Al Qaeda will get no breathing space in the coming months.
The General also seems convinced that only by securing peoples' trust and living among them can help fight and beat insurgency. Pakistani authorities' endeavour to help raise tribal lashkars against Taliban also looks akin to the private militia raised in Iraq's Anbar province under the Sunni Awakening programme.
It looks quite imminent that Gen,Petraeus would like to replicate this experience in Afghanistan as well as urge Pakistan to intensify the lashkar-building in the tribal and frontier regions. This essentially means engaging the community to fight the evil. For this, the general and his colleagues would not refrain from employing money as a weapon system. He believes "Money can be "ammunition" which means it can be used to build, buy and bribe.
In this context, the General emphasizes that contracts go out to locals to give them a sense of participation. His people learnt this lesson from Iraq, as well as from Afghanistan, where most of the contracts went to the US contractors and to scores of non-Afghan and non-Iraqi contractors. This obviously bred suspicion and resentment among locals.
The focus on Lashkars in Pakistan also basically stems from the belief that the war against militants cannot be won without the support of the local tribesmen. One only hopes that Obama and his aides demonstrate patience vis a vis Pakistan's efforts in the questionable war on terror.
The Petraeus guidelines offer some advice to the military and civilian authorities i.e. underscoring the need to beat insurgents through statements of truths. This appears to be a very bold approach which can raise the level of trust and confidence among the local population, even if they have to be informed of some thing disastrous.
It will be interesting to see how the guidelines are implemented in Afghanistan and the tribal areas, and as to what extent will Gen.Petraeus and Obama aides will speak and act in unison when it came to fighting the insurgency in this region.